Oscar Nominees 2015 (Part 6 of 6): Prediction, Best Original Score — 7 Comments

  1. I am really disapointed with your analysis. Every time when you come to Desplat’s chances you always say: “he has a double nomination so he can’t win because it didn’t happen in the past”. But you completely ignore the factors that rule these awards. John Williams had three double nominations in more than last decade. He lost because he didn’t have the best pictures of the year in the score category. I mean: in 2002 A.I. and HP1 had 2 & 1 nominations comparing to LOTR having 13 and winning 4 (also best original score) – including best picture and best director nominations. In 2006 Munich had 5 noms winning nothing, Geisha won 3 technical categories (had 6 noms), but it was Brokeback Mountain which won best score with the largest number of nominations (8) and 3 wins including best director and screenplay (and was probably runner-up in best picture). So Williams who won BAFTA and GG for Geisha didn’t win an Oscar not because he had a double nomination, but because he had a weaker movie. The same situation in 2011 – Tintin (1 nom) and War Horse (6 noms, 0 wins) – the winner: The Artist (5 Oscars, including BP and BD). The second thing is how the voting ballot looks like. Well, I’ve made a little resarch and you have to know that it doesn’t include names. You vote for a title of the movie. No one knows that Desplat is nominated twice (unless he/she knows from other source, everything is in the internet). Actually, I don’t think anyone cares about who scored which movie. They just vote for the movie which they think is the best and at the same time which has good music. Other examples: this year there are more people nominated twice in the same category. Does it mean that set decorator Anna Pickock will not win an Oscar for GBH because she received a double nomination for both GBH and Into the Woods? Even in a very competitive category like Best Directing Steven Soderbergh won for Traffic being also nominated for Erin Brokovich! So my analysis goes like this: GBH and TIG have the largest number of nominations, indluding Best Picture and Best Director. However The Imitation Game doesn’t seem to win much, but GBH is definitely considered as one of the best pictures of the year. Theory of Everything has no directing nominations, so its Best Picture nomination is rather weak. GBH has a very characteristic music which plays a huge role in the movie, so I think it has the biggest chances to win. However, I consider Theory of Everything as its biggest threat – because it has a very well exposed score, Eddie Redmayne is very popular and Johannsson won the Golden Globe. And the last aspect of my analysis: the previous awards. Consider two things: Golden Globes are given by an Association which counts about 100 members. BAFTA has almost as many categories and voters as AMPAS (6000). GBH was NOT nominated in Best Score category in Globes, so I am not surprised that Johannsson won it (TIG was not strong enough). But ToE received 10 BAFTA nominations (GBH had 11) and it still didn’t win, and I have to add it, it was in UK! I mean, a british movie which received Best British Picture of the Year and Best Screenplay BAFTA awards, and was nominated for directing didn’t win! In Britain! So you know, in Oscars GBH has 9 noms, and ToE only 5 (without BD), how does it have any chances to win? Well, after Golden Globes a lot of people considered Johannsson as a frontrunner in this category and then they excluded the possibility of Desplat winning because of 2 noms and they are repeating it all the time. So it has some chances. But look at Brokeback Mountain – Williams won both GG and BAFTA, he was considered as a frontrunner and he failed, because the music is not the thing that matters the most 😉 I’m predicting Desplat’s GBH to win. We will see who was right in few days 🙂

    • @hp-gof. Thank you for such a detailed and indeed convincing analysis. Perhaps you’re right that I’m being too harsh to essentially discount Desplat because of his double nomination. And maybe the sample size for double nominees at 12 is not big enough to make any generalizations, but a 1/12 ratio of wins to double nominations is disproportionate to the 1/5 chances a score has of winning just by the numbers, so I have to think that having a double nomination and not winning are related. It is interesting that Theory of Everything didn’t win the Best Score BAFTA. That probably requires some in-depth research to figure out.

      As for Grand Budapest, there two things that I would say hamper its chances (outside of any possible effect from the double nomination). First, Wes Anderson films tend to be very divisive, viewers either love them or hate them. And although its nominations for Best Picture and Director speak well of its esteem in the Academy, earning a win requires many more to like it. I’m just not sure this would be the case. Second, the film is a comedy, and comedies tend to be viewed by the Academy as less worthy of awards. Once again, the Picture and Director nominations are good signs, but since 1999, when the Best Dramatic Score and Best Comedy or Musical Score subcategories were joined into one, not a single comedy has even been nominated. Yes, there have been several comedic children’s films that have been nominated, and Up took home the award in 2009, but those are different. Grand Budapest is not a children’s comedy, so for it to win would overcome some fairly strong historic trends.

      In any case, yes, we will see who wins Sunday night. Thanks again!

  2. Well, let’s continue our discussion.

    I think that the problem with GBH is its early premiere. I mean – voting in categories like production design, make up and costumes is easy, because you don’t have to remember the movie well. You see the pictures from the movie everywhere and it’s enough to remember these elements. However, if someone watched this movie in March in the cinema and didn’t repeat it on a screener before voting, this person will probably not remember the score at all. And The Theory of Everything had its premiere in the fall, so it seems to be better remembered, I think.

    Well, I consider The Artist as a comedy – well, a comedy with some drama in it. The Grand Budapest Hotel has also a lot of melancholy in it. So it’s not a pure comedy. However I don’t know what will be the final reception of this movie by Americans. I think they still like it a lot. The movie won best comedy in GG, it received best screenplay award in WGA and a lot of BAFTAs. The Brits (as Europeans) completely liked it (and ignored Birdman, for example).

    Remember one thing. The whole Academy votes, including production designers, costume designers, actors, producers, editors and so on – generally these are the people who will not analyse the music on the CD. They don’t specialize in movie scores. So, if so many branches nominated the same movie individually in their categories, they had to watch it, enjoy it, remember it. I mean, if you see the Oscar polls, when people vote for a movie which should win in some category, they always choose the one they watched and liked. Even if they don’t know or remember the rest of them. So if GBH gained more attention than ToE in nominations, there is more posibility that people will vote for it instead of ToE. And I don’t believe that each and every member of the Academy watched every movie. I believe in “GBH takes it all” scenario 😛

    Who would you like to see winning on Sunday night? 🙂

    • I actually feel that Grand Budapest is most deserving this time around. It was an enjoyable bouquet of musical styles that was perfectly suited to the odd mixing of national traits and characters in the film. It’s also the score that has stuck with me the most. Good stuff.

    • Indeed – congratulations, and thanks for your thorough discussions. I’m very happy that Grand Budapest won. It is the best of the lot in my opinion.

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